The Arab Institute of Business Leaders (IACE) has raised concerns over Tunisia’s widening trade deficit, driven by
selective increases in imports and stagnant exports.
While some indicators point to an industrial rebound, structural imbalances continue to hinder the country’s economic consolidation, according to a new IACE study titled “Imports: The Reality Behind a Contrasting Trend.”
Citing data from the National Institute of Statistics (INS), the IACE reported that Tunisia’s trade deficit reached 16.728 billion dinars (about €4.9 billion) in the first nine months of 2025, compared to 13.497 billion dinars during the same period in 2024.
The gap stems from a 5.4% rise in imports, while exports grew by just 0.03%, underscoring the fragility of Tunisia’s external trade balance.
The institute’s analysis highlights a mixed dynamic: declining energy and food imports suggest weaker domestic demand for basic goods, whereas higher imports of intermediate, mining, and capital goods indicate a partial recovery in productive activity.
These industrial input purchases point to a gradual restart of Tunisia’s manufacturing sector, which is traditionally the main engine of its economy.
The manufacturing sector, which accounts for 79% of exports and 71% of imports, is showing renewed vigour. Imports of mechanical and electrical goods rose by 15%, while textile, apparel, and leather imports increased by 3.5%.
According to the IACE, this trend reflects a strategic reliance on imports to sustain exports and reinforce Tunisia’s position in global value chains.
However, the study warns that the energy sector continues to weigh heavily on the trade balance, accounting for 48% of the total deficit.
The national oil production has fallen from 77,000 barrels per day in 2010 to just 27,000 today, while gas output has declined by 9% year-on-year.
The 11.8% drop in energy imports recorded in 2025 is mainly attributed to a 15% fall in Brent crude prices and the depreciation of the US dollar.
Still, the IACE cautions that these gains are temporary and fragile, as the country’s structural energy dependence remains high.
MK/sf/lb/gik/APA