Algeria has yet to reduce its dependence on foreign markets or fully leverage its agricultural potential — a strategic vulnerability that could deepen amid volatile global markets and geopolitical tensions affecting its suppliers.
The latest analysis from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) highlights structural weaknesses in Algeria’s grain sector. The country’s 2025 output — estimated at 3 million tonnes of wheat and 1.35 million tonnes of barley — still falls short of domestic needs.
Despite volumes comparable to last year, Algeria remains heavily dependent on foreign markets, with imports for the 2024/25 season projected at 8 million tonnes, sourced mainly from Russia.
According to the report, these figures reflect stagnant productivity, particularly in the country’s north, where yields remain heavily dependent on rainfall. Sowing was delayed by erratic and insufficient autumn rains, while some western regions suffered total crop loss.
Although spring conditions brought some recovery, the USDA notes that performance remains below average, underscoring the climate vulnerability of Algeria’s agricultural model.
In the south, the expansion of pivot irrigation has brought cultivated land to 150,000 hectares — accounting for 10% of national output — thanks to major investments in equipment and storage infrastructure.
However, this growth remains concentrated in the hands of large state-owned groups and a few foreign partners, with little transparency over farm profitability. The absence of per-hectare economic performance metrics — standard practice in more competitive agricultural markets — hampers the identification of best practices and the structuring of genuine modernisation.
The drop in imports, from 9.2 million to 8 million tonnes, is linked to reduced shipments from Russia and France, the latter having been virtually excluded from tenders issued by the Algerian Interprofessional Cereals Office.
Russia now stands as Algeria’s dominant supplier, delivering 1.7 million tonnes over the past ten months, compared to more than 2 million the previous season. This commercial dependence, coupled with climate instability, continues to cast uncertainty over the country’s food security outlook.
MK/sf/lb/as/APA