Faster growth, contained inflation and stronger reserves: the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development is painting a clearer picture for 2026, even as external vulnerabilities linger.
Morocco’s economy shifted into a higher gear in 2025, buoyed by an agricultural rebound and a more resilient non-agricultural sector. In its February 2026 Regional Economic Prospects report, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) raised its growth forecasts and outlined a more legible trajectory for 2026 — one defined by subdued inflation, gradual fiscal consolidation and a markedly improved reserve position.
The most striking signal is the upward revision itself. The institution lifted its projections by 0.6 percentage points for 2025 and 0.4 points for 2026 compared to its September 2025 estimates. Morocco is now expected to grow at 4.8% in 2025, 4.4% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027, following two consecutive years of 3.7% growth in 2023 and 2024. “Real GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year in the January–September 2025 period, up from 3.7% in 2024, supported by broad-based expansion across both agricultural and non-agricultural sectors,” the EBRD noted. Across the region, Morocco stands out as one of the key drivers of improvement across the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean.
The second defining trend is disinflation. The EBRD recorded average inflation of just 0.7% in 2025, down from 1.0% in 2024, largely on the back of falling food prices. Against this backdrop, Bank Al-Maghrib held its benchmark interest rate at 2.25% in December 2025 — following a cumulative 75-basis-point easing over the preceding 18 months — opting for a cautious stance amid a still-uncertain global environment.
On the fiscal front, consolidation is moving forward, if gradually. The budget deficit is estimated to have narrowed from 3.9% of GDP in 2024 to 3.6% in 2025, driven by stronger tax revenues. This measured improvement reinforces Morocco’s macroeconomic credibility while preserving the fiscal space needed to sustain public investment and social spending.
The external picture is more mixed. While the EBRD highlighted a record 19.8 million tourist arrivals in 2025 and sustained remittance flows, it also flagged a relative deterioration in the external position, with import growth outpacing export growth between January and November. The report further noted that the majority of economies it tracks are running trade deficits with China — a trend that deepened for nearly three-quarters of them between 2024 and 2025, Morocco among them.
The EBRD also flagged risks tied to potential U.S. tariff scenarios, with hypothetical duties ranging from 5.7% to 16.6% depending on the assumptions used. While these do not constitute impact forecasts, they underscore the heightened exposure of open economies to ongoing shifts in global value chains.
Against this backdrop, the buildup of foreign reserves stands out as a key buffer. Official reserves reached $43 billion in December 2025 — a 28.8% increase year-on-year — covering close to six months of imports, according to the EBRD. That cushion meaningfully strengthens Morocco’s resilience to external shocks and underpins its macroeconomic stability heading into 2026.
MK/ak/lb/as/APA