The dispute between Cairo and Addis Ababa has worsened following Ethiopia’s announcement of plans for three new hydroelectric dams on the Blue Nile, according to reports earlier this week.
For Egypt, whose water supply depends heavily on the Nile, these dams represent a major issue of water and food security, after more than a decade of disagreements surrounding the controversial Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
The issue now extends beyond water alone. The rapprochement between Ethiopia and Somaliland, from which Addis Ababa is seeking maritime access, has heightened Cairo’s concerns.
Egypt has simultaneously deepened its military cooperation with Somalia and strengthened its
relations with several players in the region, notably Eritrea, raising fears of an expansion of geopolitical rivalries in the Horn of Africa.
Militarily, Cairo possesses capabilities theoretically enabling long-range operations.
The Egyptian Air Force fields Rafale fighter jets equipped with SCALP-EG cruise missiles with a range exceeding 400 kilometres, as well as MiG-29M/M2 and F-16 aircraft.
The navy also has two Mistral-class helicopter carriers, FREMM frigates, Gowind-class corvettes, and Type 209 submarines. The Berenice naval base on the Red Sea serves as a strategic support point for potential deployments southward.
However, any direct attack against the GERD’s main dam would present considerable risks. A breach of the dam could cause catastrophic flooding in Sudan and have repercussions as far away as Egypt.
The military scenarios outlined in the document focus primarily on potential secondary infrastructure, including electrical installations and new hydroelectric projects.
Ethiopia, for its part, has strengthened its air defences and drone capabilities, while its military officials have pledged to defend the country’s infrastructure.
A confrontation between the two powers risks extending instability to the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with potential repercussions for maritime traffic to the Suez Canal and for a region already weakened by several conflicts.
MK/Sf/fss/as/APA