At the heart of Maghreb rivalries, migration routes, and external interference, Morocco emerges as a structuring pole of the North African security architecture, according to an analysis by the Italian Institute of International Affairs, which nevertheless emphasises the fragility of regional balances.
Morocco occupies a pivotal position in the security balances of the Maghreb and the Mediterranean region, according to a study published by the Instituto Affari Internazionali in Rome. In its analysis of the North African security landscape, the institute describes an environment marked by the intertwining of interstate rivalries, transnational crime, and foreign influence strategies, the effects of
which extend far beyond national borders.
The report highlights that European perspectives tend to present North Africa as an unstable periphery, obscuring the role of policies implemented north of the Mediterranean in generating insecurity in the South.
In this context, Morocco is presented as an actor exposed to regional realignments but committed to a methodical risk management policy, combining security cooperation, diplomacy, and targeted
economic projection.
The study emphasises the systemic nature of the threats. Criminal networks, non-state armed groups, Sahelian jihadist organisations, and interstate antagonisms form a continuum of destabilisation.
This hybrid nature, fueled by the weakness of certain state apparatuses and the exploitation of local vulnerabilities by external powers, renders any strictly national interpretation of the risks largely ineffective.
In this fragmented landscape, Rabat stands out for the relative strength of its institutions, contrasting with the collapse of Libya or the security fragmentation of the central Sahel.
This stability, however, does not immunize the Kingdom against the effects of the progressive militarization of Maghreb relations, the reconfiguration of migration flows, and increased geopolitical competition on its southern flank.
The report pays particular attention to the rivalry between Morocco and Algeria, described as a long-standing, low-intensity confrontation.
This regional “cold war” is characterised by an arms race and increasingly harsh rhetoric. The analysis notes that Morocco’s security cooperation with Israel and its external alliances are perceived in Algiers as factors of strategic imbalance, fueling persistent mutual distrust.
The issue of migration constitutes another central focus of the analysis. The institute emphasizes that Europe’s efforts to secure migration have contributed to structuring a clandestine economy that benefits criminal networks and armed actors.
Morocco is simultaneously a country of origin, transit, and cooperation with the European Union,
within a system where the closure of certain routes merely shifts the flow of migrants, without stemming it.
MK/ak/ac/fss/as/APA