Following an estimated 4.8% expansion in the second quarter, Morocco’s economic growth is projected to pick up momentum to reach 5.4% between July and September 2026.
This would be driven primarily by a robust recovery in the agricultural sector, according to the High Commission for Planning (HCP).
In its third economic outlook report for 2026, the HCP noted that the national economy is expected to grow by 5.4% in the third quarter of 2026, up from 4.8% in the previous quarter.
According to the HCP, “after a first half marked by a slowdown in secondary sectors, the national economy is expected to show a resurgence of activity in the third quarter of 2026, with brighter prospects for the extractive and manufacturing industries.”
“Year-on-year Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is projected to reach 5.4%, compared to 4.8% in the prior quarter, bolstered by a recovery in domestic demand and a gradual improvement in global trade,” the HCP added.
The acceleration is expected to stem from a broadening of sectoral growth drivers. The agricultural sector is forecast to continue its recovery, surging 19.9% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026.
At the same time, rebounding global trade is expected to support stronger external demand, driving a 1.8% increase in manufacturing value-added.
The extractive industries are also poised to benefit from a more favorable global environment, spurred by a recovery in foreign demand for fertilizers. This trend is supported by an easing of tariffs in the U.S. market, alongside strengthening demand from India and Japan.
Meanwhile, the service sector is expected to maintain its momentum, with its value-added projected to rise 4.4% year-on-year.
The report highlights that household consumption remains the primary engine of this economic performance, with a projected growth rate of 4.9%, up from 4.7% in the previous quarter. This spending is supported by rising household incomes and favourable financing conditions, amid easing inflationary pressures.
According to the HCP, headline inflation is expected to average 1.2% year-on-year in the third quarter—down from a peak of 1.7% in April—assuming Brent crude prices stabilize around $85 per barrel.
Productive investment is also set to regain stronger momentum, growing by 11.1% compared to 9.4% in the second quarter of 2026, fueled by increased investments in port, road, and water infrastructure.
Conversely, foreign trade is expected to remain a drag on growth, subtracting an average of 2.1 percentage points in the third quarter of 2026. A 10.2% recovery in exports, driven by a rebound in phosphate derivatives, will be offset by a sharper 12.4% increase in imports (up from 10.8% in Q2), fueled by strengthening domestic demand.
AK/Sf/lb/as/APA