The death toll from the violent Islamist insurgency in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province has breached the 6,000 mark since it started eight years ago, according to new data released by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED).
The resurgence of attacks – now spanning 11 districts – has raised concerns about its possible link to the imminent restart of a major liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Palma.
ACLED researcher Peter Bofin told LUSA news agency that 6,257 deaths have been recorded since the first attack in Mocímboa da Praia district on 5 October 2017, including at least 2,631 civilians.
The Islamic State-linked militants have shifted tactics in recent years, operating in small, mobile cells that evade conventional security responses.
“This allows them to operate across much of the province, a pattern that strains the resources of the security forces,” he said.
Despite a reduction in fighter numbers – from an estimated 2,000 in 2021 to fewer than 400 today – the group remains highly disruptive and resilient.
Between August and September, insurgent activity intensified, prompting nearly 22,000 people to flee from three districts, according to UN agencies.
Analysts suggest the uptick may be tied to the planned resumption of LNG operations in Palma, a district previously targeted during the insurgency’s peak.
Mozambican and Rwandan forces retook Mocímboa da Praia in August 2021 after it served as a rebel stronghold for over a year.
Since then, the Mozambican Defence and Security Forces have made gains, though challenges persist.
Bofin praised recent military efforts but warned of structural weaknesses, including corruption, data leaks and civilian targeting – particularly in coastal areas suspected of sympathising with insurgents.
The Cabo Delgado insurgency remains one of the most protracted and destabilizing conflicts in southern Africa, with implications for regional security and economic recovery.
JN/APA