The official narrative in Tunisia is reassuring.
In an international environment marked by geopolitical tensions and tightening financial conditions, the economy is said to have demonstrated resilience in 2025.
The figures put forward by Tunisia – growth around 2.5 percent, declining inflation, and a contained budget deficit – are presented as proof that the country is “staying the course.”
But upon closer examination, this optimistic interpretation deserves serious qualification.
First, because these figures remain modest in light of the economy’s real needs and social expectations. Growth fluctuating between 2.4 percent and 2.6 percent remains insufficient to absorb structurally high unemployment, which has stabilised at around 15.4 percent, or to sustainably improve household purchasing power.
As for the decline in inflation, it is partly explained by weakening domestic demand, a more worrying than reassuring symptom of an economy under pressure. The sectors highlighted as drivers of this improvement also warrant critical analysis.
Agriculture, whose projected growth exceeds 9 percent, remains heavily dependent on climatic factors and continues to struggle to modernise and create sustainable added value.
Tourism, with over 9 million visitors and approximately 6 billion dinars in revenue over nine months, certainly continues to provide essential foreign currency, but at the cost of a low-productivity model, vulnerable to external shocks and generating few skilled jobs.
Talk of “relieving the burden on the coffers” cannot mask the lack of structural upgrading in the sector.
The recovery of certain activities – construction, services, mechanical and electrical industries, and mining – remains uneven and largely concentrated, without a sufficient ripple effect across the
entire productive fabric.
Here again, it is more a matter of cyclical recovery than a genuine shift in the economic system. The argument of “regaining international confidence” also deserves to be put into perspective. While the 28 percent increase in foreign direct investment over nine months is certainly a positive sign, relative to the size of the economy and the country’s investment needs, these flows – 2.5 billion dinars, with a projected 3.4 billion for the year – remain limited. Moreover, their concentration in industry and energy underscores the persistent weakness of Tunisia’s attractiveness in high-value-added services and innovation.
Actually, current indicators reflect more “tactical successes” than a profound structural transformation. Budgetary discipline, the development of domestic resources, and rhetoric about breaking with past mistakes are not enough on their own to establish a credible new development model. Without ambitious reforms to investment, the business climate, entrepreneurship, and integration into global value chains, the current trajectory risks rapidly losing momentum.
MK/ak/ac/Sf/fss/as/APA