The Moroccan economy is expected to see a slight acceleration in the first quarter of 2026, reaching a growth rate of 4.2% year-on-year.
According to the High Commission for Planning (HCP) in its report released on January 13, 2026, this follows a period of stabilization where growth held at approximately 4% during the final quarter of 2025. This positive outlook represents a resilient recovery after a minor slowdown in the second half of 2025, which saw growth dip from a high of 5.5% in the second quarter to 4% by the third.
A primary driver of this early 2026 momentum is the vibrant tertiary sector, specifically boosted by Morocco’s hosting of the Africa Cup of Nations (AfCON). The influx of international visitors has significantly stimulated activity in the accommodation, food service, transportation, and recreation industries. This surge in tourism-related services has helped offset a deceleration in the manufacturing sector, which faced weakened external demand for metal, electronics, and textiles during the latter half of 2025.
Domestic demand remains a cornerstone of the national economy. Household consumption has improved at a rate of 3.8%, supported by successful budgetary measures that have protected purchasing power, nominal wage increases, and the continued easing of inflationary pressures. Additionally, public infrastructure spending has remained robust, contributing to an 11.2% rise in investment at the end of 2025. These large-scale projects, many of which are linked to preparations for the 2030 World Cup, continue to provide long-term stability for the construction and secondary sectors.
On the trade front, national exports of goods and services are estimated to have increased by 5.3%, while a significant moderation in imports has limited the negative impact of foreign trade on overall GDP. While challenges such as global trade fragmentation and fluctuating agricultural yields remain, the Moroccan economy enters the first quarter of 2026 on solid footing, supported by a combination of strong internal investment and a thriving services sector.
AK/fss/abj/APA